Better than the bookmaker?

So, huge statistics departments, sophisticated algorithms for calculating the perfect ratio, insider information, etc., etc. Many imagine the bookmakers as the perfect enterprise to work flawlessly and against odds which one has long term chances. The reality is, however, that there are quite a few who make permanent gains and earn more than just pocket money with sports betting.

It is also true that large bookmakers are investing a lot of technology and human resources in the calculation of the correct odds. But the fact is also that bookmakers focus mainly on the mass of the betters and often put up “people’s quotes” (see also “Bookmakers and ”Psychology of the Masses”).

Herein lies the advantage of the serious bettors. Instead of blindly betting on favorites and big names, professionals recognize it when a quota is of value, and where the weaknesses of the bookmakers are. It is also a fact that long-term success is achieved through specialization in sports betting. Those who specialize in one or two leagues and know all the features inside and out, have the edge in the long run.

The biggest advantage of the bookmakers is the house edge (see “Fair Odds vs. Bookmakers’ Odds”) and the lack of knowledge of the general public. As mentioned in the article “Bookmakers and Mass Psychology”, it is necessary to always keep in mind that the losses of the losers pay the winners’ gains. It is almost superfluous to mention that the losers’ losses are considerably higher in total than the gains of the winners. So, the bookmakers finally live off those – and in most cases not poorly.

Even though the house edge is a seemingly insurmountable advantage of the betting company, you should not be discouraged. The list of benefits of sport betters is in fact much longer. The key word is self-determination. Examples?

Advantages of sports betting:

* I can choose on which game I bet
* No bookmaker in the world can force me to play at bad ratios
* I decide how high the stakes are
* I can choose the bookmakers, and I bet I can bet where the highest rate is offered
* I do not need to know about all the sporting events and make decisions about correct predictions for them. It is enough that I am an expert in just one sport or league.
* I determine when I bet. A small hint: you should bet on favorites as often as possible. The closer a game draws, the smaller the odds on your favorite are, because the mass of the betters has just started a kick-off of the favorite. Outsiders are usually overpraised, shortly before the kickoff. See also “How bookmakers earn thier money”.

Can your own prediction system really be better than that of the bookmaker? In the fight against bookmakers they will probably have the years of experience in the calculation, and experience with quotas, so many might consider this perhaps hopeless. It is necessary to remark that there are a plenty of sports for the betters to choose from, without involvement in match-fixing being done. Practice, practice and practice again is the keyword. The continual refinement of your own forecasting system is crucial for your long-term success.

You should also endeavor to set up a network of informants and peers. One could constantly be informed on the current squad situations (injuries, suspensions, etc.), another could look after the ongoing evaluation of statistics, the next would know all about the local conditions (space, the weather forecast, fan support, etc. etc). Teamwork is the key!

The way to a good forecasting system is certainly not without hurdles and obstacles.

However, if you invest enough time in your continuous improvement, then you will arrive at a point where sports betting will have less to do with a bet, and have more with commonsense – in the real sense. From then on, you do not simply bet any more, but you invest, and good investments are always associated with income.

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